Toll Index November 2016 – gluhwein season

Based on fresh data by the Bundesamt für Güterverkehr the Toll Index for the month of November 2016 shows that the volume of outbound, border crossing, heavy freight vehicles is at an all time November high on a per working day basis. The Toll Index retreated by 6.3% compared to (a particularly high) October 2016 while it is up by 2.4% compared to November 2015 and up by 18.6% compared to the average November between 2007 and 2015.

The Index like much else in the country is in the gravitational field of the Gluhwein and is headed towards its seasonal December low. The month-on-month rate of descent of 6.3% is larger than the average October-November descent of 3.1% in the time interval 2007-2015.

I expect that German manufacturing will have an accordingly strong showing when the first estimates of the  Production Index for the month of November is published by the BMWi in about four weeks time. The Toll Index for the months of October and November show a strong fourth quarter for German manufacturing for 2016 in accordance with the Markit German composite PMI.


The data is available at the Data Repository of the IDSC – Research Data Center of IZA. The paper we first studied the properties of these data is published at the Journal of Forecasting.

The Toll Index has been widely covered in national and international press (selection):