The big divide in the Internet penetration in Italy matters for our exercise

proportion_of_people_who_were_regular_users_of_the_internet_accessed_the_internet_on_average_at_least_once_every_week_by_nuts_2_regions_2015_%c2%b9_%25_ryb2016The chart above shows the big divide in internet penetration in Italy between North and Mezzogiorno. It is fair to recall that this is another caveat to the use of Google data searches as an indicator of voting intentions. According to our results (see table below) the southern regions are those with a highest probabilty of a No vote; however if the smaller fraction of internet users in the South are not representative of the population in those regions we might be getting bised results in a larger extent than in the Northern regions.

Now back to the daily update:

The probability of a NO result in the Constitutional Referendum has increased a bit. Now it is above 55%.  In the chart I compare Google results obtained yesterday (red) and today (blue).it-30th-nov






Regarding the regional results I commented yesterday, I have a bit of further insight today, thanks to one good Italian friend who pointed to me that those regions with an “special status” (Regioni di diritto speciale) will get a reinforcenment of their autonomy with respect to the Central Government in case of a SI victory in the Referendum.

The regional results are shown in the enclosed table.  At first sight the special status is compatible with a tie in the Trentino and a No in the Mezzogiorno.