Toll Index September 2015 – back to business as never before

The Toll Index just out by the IDSC of IZA for the month of September shows that, controlling for working days per month, heavy transportation on German highways continues to set records staying above and beyond all other years. Outbound truck activity left the well established August trough (which was a best August ever) with the same slope as last year. So my advice is to continue to ignore unsubstantiated gloomy reporting.

Over all, this year’s outgoing truck activity remains above 2014 on a month on month basis and 2014 was already above all other years (with the exception of March which continues to be best in the crisis year 2008).

I expect the BMWi to announce Industrial Production numbers in line with this transportation activity when they announce their first estimate for the month of September in 3 weeks’ time.


toll-index-sep-2015Data available at the IDSC of IZA and a link to our underlying paper in the Journal of Forecasting.

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