Greek Elections September 2015 – post debate 1

UPDATE September 14 2015 (11:00 am): I continue to fail at finding a viable identification strategy for the election and hence the numbers reported just give the footprint of the political parties om Google search. Golden Dawn impressively “metastatic”, SYRIZA recovering in a remarkably linear constant fashion for 4 days. We simply look for searches containing party names. All but one party searches include the word “ballot”, or ” candidate list” and the like indicating interest for the party’s candidacy. Golden Dawn is an exception. In their case “blog” and “twitter” are strong indicating that there is a committed following. I wonder whether these searches are not by Golden Dawn supporters but by the press or even the authorities. Looking forward at plotting the impact of tonights Debate No 2.


UPDATE September 14 2015: XA persistently maintains a large (largest at 23% now) footprint in Google search. Considering that their voter base is not particularly known for its literacy level then: who is searching for them? The rest kind of shows the conventionally expected order: SYRIZA back up at 17% with ND at 14%, PASOK and POTAMI around 11% and 10% respectively, KKE with 10%, ANEL and LAE around 5% and Enwsh Kentrwwn at 4%.


UPDATE September 13 2015: XA, the greek political cancer, continues to be persistent and metastatic. Whtever shake up happen they keep on coming on top or close to it.


UPDATE September 12 2015: PASOK is “returning back to the mean” after the positive shock from the first debate. XA and SYRIZA maybe claiming the previous order but Potami seems to be escaping its mean at least for a day.


UPDATE September 11 2015: Το ΑΝΕΛ φαινεται να ξεφουσκωνει τη Νεα Δημοκρατια και το ΠΑΣΟΚ/ΔΗΜΑΡ τον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ. Ειναι πολυ νωρις ακομα αλλα υπαρχει ρευστοτητα και τα δεδομενα ανιδρουν ωραια στα ερεθισματα των μεσων και των επικοινωνιακων τρυκ. Παντως το κενο διαστημα στο .15-.20 που χωριζε τους πανω (ΣΥΡΙΖΑ και ΧΑ) απο του κατω (ολους τους αλλους) τωρα φαινεται να εχει δωσει τη θεση του σε μια πιο μεικτη και ρευστη εικονα οπου ισως το πανω γκρουπ να ειναι ΠΑΣΟΚ, ΧΑ, ΣΥΡΙΖΑ και ΝΔ με αυτη τη σειρα ενω το κατω γκρουπ ειναι ΑΝΕΛ, Ποταμι, ΚΚΕ, ΕΚ και ΛΑΕ με επισης αυτη τη σειρα με τους ΑΝΕΛ να γειτνιαζουν με την ΝΔ.



UPDATE: Τα “παιδια μας” του Βενιζελου επιστρεφουν στο σπιτι τους οσο ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ μεταλλασεται σε ΠΑΣΟΚ?



It looks like a 4 way race now, after the first debate, between ΧΑ, ΣΥΡΙΖΑ, ΝΔ και ΠΑΣΟΚ/ΔΗΜΑΡ. AGAIN: it is not clear whether our method captures intend to vote for this election so we do have a selection issue. BUT: I cannot explain why there is so much buzz for XA which is persistent. I must keep mentioning the possibility that something is simmering in the Greek electoral body that conventional polling does not capture.

After the first debate, ΣΥΡΙΖΑ appears to have come down and joined by ΝΔ and ΠΑΣΟΚ/ΔΗΜΑΡ.