Toll Index in October – Remarkably stable

The newly published values of the Toll Index by the IDSC of IZA show remarkably high increases in transportation activity both compared to Septemeber 2012 and to October 2011. While much of this increase is due to the fact the this October had 2 more working days than September 2012 and October 2011 even adjusting for this fact transportation activity does not justify other more pessimistic forecasts for the German industrial production and the business cycle yet. It should be noted that September (in which we saw a drop) had two working days less compared to September 2011 and 3 days less than August. So the recent V movement would at least balance out.