Toll Index December 2017 – year end on a high note

The data is available at the Data Repository of the IDSC – Research Data Center of IZA. The paper we first studied the properties of these data is published at the Journal of Forecasting. The Read More …

Toll Index November 2017 – Merry Times

The Toll Index (calendar adjusted) for November indicates German industrial output remained strong in the month of November as we descent in the seasonally expected December deep. Look out for good industrial production and export Read More …

Toll Index October 2017 – Jamaican growth

German GDP growth in the third quarter of 2017 came in at +.8% (season and calendar adjusted, +2.8% only with calendar adjustment) on a quarter on quarter basis. The Toll Index for October shows that Read More …

Graph of the day: less than 24 hours ahead of the election #AfD with continuing surprising uptick in Google search: #btw17 #btw2017

Explaining opinion polarisation with opinion copulas

First out as IZA DP10753 my opinion dynamics paper is now out at PLOS ONE.