French Elections in Google Search

The Google search interest of the French for their top 5 candidates in the last 7 days has not managed to compete with their aggregate interest for porn but it managed to register next to porn with non-zero numbers. Melenchon and Macron have even managed to beat porn here and there.

The percentage of search for each candidate are as follows (measurement taken as of 11:00am):

In search interest therefore it has been a two way race between Macron and Melenchon. The interest in Fillon seems to have been melting away in the last days. The interest for Le Pen is surprisingly low (for a demagogue) and consistent with her numbers among white collar French an indication that Google search might be biased and not pick up the blue collar French. Unfortunately I do not have any data to test that hypothesis (internet penetration white vs. blue collar) but it would not be completely unreasonable to say that maybe the white collar are more likely to act online than the blue collar.

Lastly below you see the top 10 related searches for each candidate. For all but Melenchon it is the full name that is most pronounced. The interest in each candidate’s program as compared to his/her name is highest for Melenchon (and in fact higher than his name) and lowest for Le Pen. The interest for Macron’s program as a percentage of the interest for his name is 100%. That same number is 111% for Melenchon, 75% for Fillon, 35% for Hamon and just 10% for Le Pen. The interest for Jean Marie Le Pen’s granddaughter beats the interest for Marine Le Pen’s program by 3 to  2!

Finally the same comparison for poll results is highest for Fillon (90%), 10% for Macron, 15% for Melenchon, while for Le Pen and Hamon it does not register in the top ten.

emmanuel macron 100
programme macron 100
brigitte macron 65
macron et sa femme 25
meeting macron 15
femme macron 15
macron sondage 10
femme de macron 10
macron age 10
loi macron 10
marine le pen 100
marion marechal le pen 15
programme marine le pen 10
jean marie le pen 5
marine le pen jeune 5
programme le pen 5
meeting marine le pen 2017 5
enfants marine le pen 0
enfants de marine le pen 0
marine le pen voldemort 0
programme mélenchon 100
jean luc mélenchon 90
programme melenchon 30
jean luc melenchon 20
meeting mélenchon 15
sondage 15
mélenchon sondage 10
programme jean luc mélenchon 10
jean-luc mélenchon 10
programme de mélenchon 10
benoit hamon 100
programme hamon 35
benoît hamon 15
programme benoit hamon 10
hamon republique 5
hamon 2017 5
meeting hamon 5
revenu universel hamon pour qui 5
gabrielle guallar 5
loi hamon 5
francois fillon 100
sondage fillon 90
programme fillon 75
françois fillon 45
fillon 2017 25
affaire fillon 20
sondage 20
sondages fillon 20
penelope fillon 20
sens commun fillon 15
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#FrenchElections 2017: Melenchon and Macron

In the last evening before the election Melenchon and Macron have separated themselves further from Le Pen and Fillion. Below is the last Google Search measurement made this election morning. Whether Google or the polls will be right and how “right” the result itself will be we will begin to find out sometime tonight.

Here again the polls for convenience:

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#FrenchElections 2017: Macron vs Melenchon

Saturday early evening update. The race looks like it is between Macron and Melenchon. The surprisingly low numbers for Le Pen appear consistent with her numbers among white collar French (15%). Google search results might be missing the Blue Collar where she commands a 36%.

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#FrenchElections 2017 – Google Trends vs polls

The story of a probably two way race between Macron and Melenchon persists in search with Fillon a very close third. The big difference with polls is that Le Pen comes in under 14% and not at 22% as polls suggest.

 

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