Category Archives: science

Galton’s Crowd forecasts #BTW2017 outcome better than Pollsters

Some time on Saturday September 23 2017 wahlrecht.de put up an elections prediction market which closed on Sunday September 24 2017 at 14:00 hrs, four hours before the voting stopped. A total of 4,144 people provided their guesses. How did … Continue reading

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Explaining opinion polarisation with opinion copulas

First out as IZA DP10753 my opinion dynamics paper is now out at PLOS ONE.

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Explaining Opinion Polarization with Opinion Copulas

Opinions are important in economics just as they are in social sciences in general. Bubbles, manias and information cascades form in opinion spaces about expectations and they evolve in a self-organizing manner. They are the outgrowth of adaptive dynamics whose … Continue reading

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Toll Index December 2016 – strong finish

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