Category Archives: nowcasting

Toll Index May 2017 – unusual

This May is unusual in many respects. First: it follows an exceptional month of April in terms of border crossing activity. Second: the number of border crossing trucks this May is at its highest ever for the month of May … Continue reading

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UK snap Elections 2017: Conservatives gain from Terror Attack

Election day today in the UK and it is hard to know how to interpret the contrast between polls and Google search. While the polls have been showing the conservatives to be in the lead – although the margin has … Continue reading

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Toll index April 2017

The data is available at the Data Repository of the IDSC – Research Data Center of IZA. The paper we first studied the properties of these data is published at the Journal of Forecasting. The Toll Index has been widely … Continue reading

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Macron vs Le Pen in post-debate Google search

The shares of  Macron vs Le Pen Google searches bounce back, in post-debate measurement,  to the pre-debate 60-40% configuration after a short-lived, debate induced merge. These numbers coincide with poll results.

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