Category Archives: markets

Galton’s Crowd forecasts #BTW2017 outcome better than Pollsters

Some time on Saturday September 23 2017 wahlrecht.de put up an elections prediction market which closed on Sunday September 24 2017 at 14:00 hrs, four hours before the voting stopped. A total of 4,144 people provided their guesses. How did … Continue reading

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Graph of the day: “short” searches in the Google Finance Category

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The unbearable lightness of forecasting with bad data

It takes no genius in order to paint the broad strokes of sound economic policy advice. That such advice may involve the M-Word is also not a surprise. This was the case with the annual report of the German Council … Continue reading

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What a (no) difference years of failure make….

I spent a few minutes reading this account of Olivier Blanchard (OB) on what went wrong in 2011. OB claims to have the four reasons which explain why a year which started in moderate but hopeful recovery mode ended with … Continue reading

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