Author Archives: Concha Artola

Wrapping up: what we got right and where we failed

In my last post, on December 2nd,  the forecast of No vote was 54% for Italy. The result was more negative for Renzi: 59% No. During last week I have been posting a “regional forecast” based on relative interest in … Continue reading

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Today Renzi was on top of searches in Italy

For the first time since we started following developments about the italian referendum last week, today Renzi has been on top of hot topics in Italy according to Gooogle. This was not the case in previous days, where the prime minister … Continue reading

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All regions point to a NO vote

A quick update on the regional vote. As shown in the Chart, there has been some convergence between regions. Those more prone to a Yes vote last Friday have increased the probability of going for a No vote; on the … Continue reading

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The big divide in the Internet penetration in Italy matters for our exercise

The chart above shows the big divide in internet penetration in Italy between North and Mezzogiorno. It is fair to recall that this is another caveat to the use of Google data searches as an indicator of voting intentions. According … Continue reading

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