UK snap Elections 2017: Conservatives gain from Terror Attack

Election day today in the UK and it is hard to know how to interpret the contrast between polls and Google search. While the polls have been showing the conservatives to be in the lead – although the margin has been melting away – the real star in Google search has been the Labour Manifesto leading the Conservative Manifesto by an ever increasing margin. I suspect an argument can be made that if we adjust the levels of Search and Polls, to account for perhaps demographic differences between Labour and Conservative voters,  we could at least have a consistent picture as far as the trends go. One last thing that is interesting is to see whether or not the London Bridge Terror attack had a lasting impact on political sentiment in some way. I had published the impact on twitter a few days back. Is it permanent? I recomputed the graph with fresh data. As we can see the searches for Labour Manifesto had a permanent drop by about 7 percentage point while the Conservative manifesto has grown by as far as 5 percentage points. The Liberals lost all gains it seems but SNP nibbled upwards and UKIP was able to hold on to about half of their four percentage point gains after the attack. With all the troubles May has been having during her campaign it appears as though she might have just been saved by the bell.

 

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