At some point I will do a paper summarizing advantages and shortcoming of the method I first applied with success for the Greek Referendum in 2016. What have we learned from applying it in the Italian Referendum?
- Unlike the Greek referendum just looking at no and si was not enough. This means we had to specify something more to properly identify relevant searches.
- Looking at the unquoted votare no and votare si did somewhat better but left out many other relevant searches plus we do not know what the unquote ones choose exactly.
- Looking at the searches in 2 but quoted i.e. the exact sentence is even more restrictive.
- As we monitored 2 we were getting weaker results for NO down the stretch because si means oneself in addition to yes hence we were picking searches like a che ora si puo votare il 4 dicembre. When we cleaned these we got closer:
- In all cases there was a drop in the last day. Probably people were making up their minds and leaving the search.
- Looking at perche votare no/si lost significance towards the end.
- Interesting results can be obtained by looking at io voto si -no and io voto no -si.
In all cases search clearly showed results ranging from “yes could not possibly win” to “no wins hands down”.