A quick update on the regional vote. As shown in the Chart, there has been some convergence between regions. Those more prone to a Yes vote last Friday have increased the probability of going for a No vote; on the other hand in both Calabria and Fruili-Venezia Giulia the probaility of voting No is now about 53%, 4 pp. below last week figures. In Piedmont the negative vote is also 53%, 2 pp. lower than last week, while in Lombardia and Lazio remains stable also at 53%.
In a nutshell the referendum on Sunday is going to be really tight if we have to believe in this Google tool.