The Italian Referndum. Day minus 5.

The last release of Google data, downloaded one hour ago, show a decline of the NO vote intention  from the 58% registered yesterday down to 54% today.

May I remind the readers of the limitations of this exercise as mentioned already by Nikos in his very first post of this series, when in the remainder of the post I´ll follow the convention of referring to Google search results as voting intention, just to keep language easy.prob-no-29-nov

I would like to add some evidence of voting intentions accross regions.  As seen in  the table below,  the No vote intentions prevails in all regions, with the exception of the tiny region of Molise where the Yes might win,  and  a tie in Liguria and Trentino-Alto Adige/South Tyrol. More interesting is the clear No observed in large parts of the Mezzogiorno; in Calabria, Abruzzo, Sardinia and Campania, the  probability of a NO vote victory is above 55%.  In the big regions of Piedmont and Lombardy the No is above 53%.


It is difficullt however to go much further in the meaning of these regional results. For instance although must of Mezzogiono looks like cleraly against the constitutional reform, there is the important exception of Sicily, where the No and Yes are very closed. This could be due to the special status of this region.

Any italian reader out there could make sense of these results

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