The #Brexit referendum at t minus 8

We are at ” Brexit t minus 8″ today and it is getting more and more interesting as we are descending to the referendum day. I was arguing elsewhere that parliamentary sovereignty (basically the parliament can ignore the outcome of a referendum or even “interpret” it like the current Greek government did) implies that the outcome of the Brexit referendum is non-binding. This means voting for leave is cheap talk and why wouldn’t voters do the rational thing and air their grievances? What this means is that only if you are absolutely dealt a brilliant hand by the UK being in the EU would you be well advised to vote remain. Everybody else ought to be selfish and vote leave: the Armageddon the remaineers are painting -if likely at all- can still be prevented in the aftermath if all sides (Labour, Conservatives, Brussels and European partners) do better than before. In other words the leverage argument is doable. This is what German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble’s “in is in out is out” is trying to stir away from. What he is afraid of is that “in is in and out is a better in”.

The bookies will currently pay slightly more than one pound for every pound you bet on leave, the poll at The Economist currently has it at 44-42% for leave and 10% of “don’t know” while the Financial Time Poll of Polls average currently stands at 47-44% for leave and 8% undecided. Google Trends in the last 24 hours shows that searches for “reasons to leave the eu” outpace “reasons to stay in the eu” by 52.5% to 47.5% while searches for “leave eu” outpace those for “stay eu” by 64.9% to 35.1%.

All dials point to leave at the moment.

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One Response to The #Brexit referendum at t minus 8

  1. Pingback: #Brexit at t minus 5 in the shadow of Jo Cox’s death | signals in the noise

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