#Brexit Polling Trivia

The Financial Times’ Brexit Poll Tracker tracks (as of this writing) a total of 242 Brexit polls from 15 pollsters. The outcomes are shares of Leave, Stay and Undecideds summing up to 100. The sample mean is 1966 with std deviation of 1715 (min=500, max=20050).  The undecided shares have a mean of 16.65 with std deviation 5.76. The polls were contacted between September 9 2010 and June 6 2016. What might cause the variation are (besides people changing their mind) time, pollster, sample size and naturally sample bias. Regressing the leavers on the undecideds and doing the same for the stayers we notice that as expected both the leavers and the stayers increase as the undecideds drop but that the slope is twice as steep for the stayers. Naively extrapolating it would seem that we should expect the Remain vote to be between 52% and 55.5% come June 23 (assuming U=0).

brexit_polls

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