To #BREXIT or not to #BREXIT: June update

As we enter June and we are just three weeks ahead of the BREXIT referendum the latest Guardian poll shows the brexiteers leading 52% -48% . Moreover both the Financial Times  as well as the Economist brexit poll trackers continue to have the remaineers ahead but by a diminishing margin. As of this writing the Economist says it is 41%-39% for the remaineers with 16% undecideds whereas the Financial Times have it at 46%-43% with 12% undecideds. The bookies used to pay £4 for each £1 on leave just a week ago. Now that dropped down to £2.5. In Google search we have the opposite trend. According to Google Trends it currently stands 55%-45% for the brexiteers but the lead is diminishing.

In searches the most prevalent leave search is “reasons to leave the eu”. Similarly for the stay searches it is “reasons to stay in the eu”. I believe that far from indicating voter intend at this point these searches are still about people making up their minds. The fact that we see the lead for leave searches melting away might indicate that the exploratory searches slowly reduce in volume giving their place to searches which indicate voter intend. It looks as though this will be a very interesting finish.

This entry was posted in Big Data, commentary, nowcasting, Social Media and tagged , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.