The BREXIT referendum

On Thursday June 23 2016 the UK soccer team will be on its way back home from France or getting ready to enter its first do-or-die game in the upcoming UEFA European Championship. On the same day of course voters on the island will be called to cast their vote in the upcoming EU referendum their options being whether to stay in the EU or leave. To make matters all the more entangled Greece is said to be running out of funds around the same time, making the ongoing negotiations of the Greek government with the country’s creditors an interesting factor in this timeline. Having learned from the Greek referendum EU officials are conspicuously absent this time around, avoiding any comments regarding both matters, whose outcome might have unpredictable or undesired consequences.

In the meantime the EU referendum’s degree of salience is rising as six out of the top ten auto-completions of Google searches world wide, starting with “EU “, are related to the referendum. Finally in the space of all UK Google searches (in the last seven days as of this writing) either for “reasons to leave the EU” or “reasons to stay in the EU” 52.8% are for leaving. In the space of searches for leave EU -stay or stay in EU -leave 73% are for leaving. Clearly too early to call but at this early stage either the leavers are more active or leaving searches are more interesting. Interestingly of course these numbers are not far from how the bookies have it currently (about 2 to 1 or more for leaving as of this writing). What are such searches about? In descending degree of prevalence:

  • the leave searches are “vote to leave eu, brexit, leave eu poll, leave eu campaign, vote leave eu, will uk leave eu, vote leave, what happens if we leave eu, eu referendum, uk leave eu” whereas,
  • the stay searches are “vote to stay in eu, should uk stay in eu, reasons to stay in eu, stay in eu campaign, why stay in eu, why uk should stay in eu, uk stay in eu, eu referendum, reason to stay in eu, arguments to stay in eu”.

As we are bracing for the moment of truth on BREXIT I will try to monitor this and possibly post updates if I think they are worth something.

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