Google Trends appears to say that the results ought to look as follows:
- PaF 30%
- PS 28%
- CDU 18%
- BE 16
- MPT+ LTDA + PDR = 7%
The main thing to observe is that it appears as though something happened in the midnight of October 2 to October 3 that caused PaF and PS to swap places while giving up ground to CDU and BE. Well since we are looking at 24-hour moving averages we are seeing the effect of a trend change 24 hour before that. It is clear there that there is a flow from PS to BE.
I missed these elections all together so I found out about them at the Sunday breakfast table and programmed the data presentations with coffee and eggs as well. So the estimates ought to be taken with a grain of salt… I know almost nothing about Portuguese politics and so I have no way of knowing how or whether the identification strategy works here. Conventional polling can be found here if you want to compare. Here is the graph. Labels are what I used in Google Trends so if you are a Portuguese politics buff you know where I went wrong. Enjoy.