Greek Elections September 2015 – with new approach

I have been monitoring the Greek electoral body in a somewhat simple way so far by measuring the relative footprint of each party’s name in the general urban chatter of connected voters. The results were believable except that the number for Golden Dawn keep coming very high. While this is a measurement fact and deserves to be discussed it also shows that quite possible our identification strategy for picking up the right signal is insufficient.

I have now developed a second approach which gives more conventional results. The new approach looks for searches of the sort “SYRIZA ballot” or “ND Ballot”  (ψηφοδελτιο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ ή ψηφοδελτιο ΝΔ κλπ). This ought to be a better strategy and early on we did not have enough searches of this type. Now the numbers strengthened as we are in the final stretch. The two plots are below. Both say that it is a SYRIZA victory. The “ballot approach” shows Golden Dawn at their expected size. PASOK appears to be very close to ND on both approaches.

Here are the results at this moment according to the ballot method:

 

  • ΣΥΡΙΖΑ 31%
  • ΝΔ 22%
  • ΠΑΣΟΚ 19%
  • ΠΟΤΑΜΙ 8%
  • ΚΚΕ 5%
  • ΛΑΕ 7%
  • Ενωση Κεντρωων –
  • ΑΝΕΛ 4%
  • Χρυση Αυγη 5%

 

report-15:21:51-19-Sep-2015

 

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