Greek Elections September 2015

UPDATE September 9 2015 (19:22 hrs) Corrected some programming errors to get a correct grafting of the google data during updates.

report-19:18:56-9-Sep-2015

UPDATE September 9 2015: “ντιμπειτ ναιτ”, “…τα ελληνικα μου” 🙂 Will be interesting to see how the Google numbers react to tonight’s debate.

report-08:09:04-9-Sep-2015

UPDATE September 8 2015: Some coloring and pattern changes (για το Νικο)

report-14:45:56-8-Sep-2015

UPDATE September 8 2015: A more conventional picture is emerging.

report-09:59:42-8-Sep-2015

UPDATE September 7 2015: I was forgetting ANEL, now added. SYRIZA noses upwards to well over 25% and ND catches up with Xrysh Aygh at 15%. PASOK/DHMAR appear to be coming alive as well. It will be a bumpy few days ahead as campaigning heats up.

report-08:46:49-7-Sep-2015

UPDATE September 6 2015: Three groups are shyly forming on Google Trends: SYRIZA and Golden dawn around 20%; ND, PASOK/DHMAR, KKE and Potamo close to 10% and finally LAE and Enhsw Kentrwwn under 5%. It is still unclear whether these searches are related to intention of vote but they are still remarkable in their persistence, stability and reasonable evolution.

 

report-12:11:05-6-Sep-2015

UPDATE September 5 2015:

report-15:22:39-5-Sep-2015

 

UPDATE September 4 2015: Electorate still sorting things out for itself. ΣΥΡΙΖΑ and ΧΡΥΣΗ ΑΥΓΗ still on top but both with a slight downtrend. Νεα Δημοκρατια lost some traction but ΠΑΣΟΚ/ΔΗΜΑΡ are in the second tier mix. The rest flirt with the 5% line lead by KKE.

Note: The spike in ΠΑΣΟΚ/ΔΗΜΑΡ is due to 3 September 1974. It is the establishment anniversary of ΠΑΣΟΚ, it could easily subside in the next days…

report-07:13:35-4-Sep-2015

UPDATE September 3 2015:

Google data still points to radicalization of the Greek electorate.

report-10:36:04-3-Sep-2015

 

On September 20 2015 Greece will hold parliamentary elections. There are already many polls out there. I am posting what Google searches would say if we believed them. I am not sure the methodology will apply as I am still trying to understand whether a viable identification strategy exists which will allow us to believe the data but currently I see more or less the same things as the conventional polls except that on Google the main duel is NOT between SYRIZA and Nea Dhmokratia but between SYRIZA and Xrysh Aygh. The prospect of XA in power is a scary one so I hope this method is wrong. If not something very profound is happening in the Greek electoral body. A glimmer of hope in the last hours shows that XA is trending downwards and Nea Dhmokratia is trending upwards but it is all too early to tell. I will be posting the data daily here so feel free to come back and check on the latest. So long as I believe this is interesting of course. If I am convinced the method does not have a chance I will stop posting.

Report-09:17:04-2-Sep-2015Υπαρχουν ηδη πολλα συμβατικα γκαλοπ για τις εκλογες της 20ης Σεπτεμβριου. Προσθετω σε αυτα και ενα μη συμβατικο βασισμενο στα δεδομενα της Google. Ειναι ακομα σε πειραματικο σταδιο καθως δεν ειμαι σιγουρος οτι υπαρχει μια στρατηγικη ταυτοποιησης ικανη να μας κανει να εμπιστευθουμε τη μεθοδο. Παρ’ ολα αυτα να ενα πρωτο δειγμα που δειχνει οτι η κυριως μαχη δεν ειναι αναμεσα σε ΣΥΡΙΖΑ και Νεα Δημοκρατια αλλα αναμεσα στον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ και στη Χρυση Αυγη. Ελπιζω να κανει λαθος η μεθοδος διοτι η προοπτικη της Χρυσης Αυγης στην κυβερνηση θα ειναι το λιγοτερο καταστροφικη για τη χωρα. Εαν ομως δεν κανουμε λαθος κατι πρωτογνωρο συμβαινει στα σπλαχνα του ελληνικου εκλογικου σωματος που ευλογως δεν το πιανουν τα συμβατικα γαλοπ. Μια μικρη ελπιδα οτι και η μεθοδος μας δουλευει αλλα και οτι τα πραγματα ομαλοποιουνται μας δινουν οι τελευταιες ωρες κατα τις οποιες η ΧΑ πεφτει και η ΝΔ ανεβαινει. Θα συνεχισω να ανανεωνω το γραφημα καθ οσον πιστευω οτι εχει ενδιαφερον.

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