Toll Index June 2015 – heading into the summer

The Toll Index took a steep downturn, month on month, this June as we are headed into the summer season. The downward trend will continue until August and is a seasonal phenomenon so our eyes should be on whether we stay on top of the spaghetti graph or not. The steepness of this month-on-month descent has more to do with the fact that May 2015 was exceptional (as can be seen in the graph) than with an economic weakness: this June is nonetheless the best Maut month ever and Industrial Production should most likely follow accordingly.

Toll Index June 2015

Data available at the IDSC of IZA and a link to our underlying paper in the Journal of Forecasting.

 

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