Toll Index June 2014 – 2014Q2 GDP will be an 8 year record

The Toll Index for the month of June is just out showing a seasonally expected slow down in heavy transport activity but at a high level (8-year high month of June). The slow down is expected to bottom out in August. We expect that the Industrial Production Index, to be published around mid-August, will be in line with the Toll Index movement.  We can now say that in 6 weeks time when the first vintage of the official numbers for the GDP growth in Q2 are out they ought to reflect the Toll Index as well and show that 2014Q2 is an 8 year record second quarter.

More on the Toll Index at the website of the IDSC of IZA. Our Journal of Forecasting paper on the Toll Index.

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