Toll Index May 2014 – 8 year high

Heavy transport activity has turned into its expected, summer driven, diving trajectory expected to bottom out in August before it starts increasing again. Nonetheless this May represents an 8 year high which, in view of all the recent gloom coming from the Ukrainian situation and the continuing deflationary fears, ought to be a good sign. Outbound heavy transport is 17.6% better than the deep of the crisis in May 2009, 7.12% better than the mean month of May in the last 8 years, 3.39% better than the previous seven year high in 2008 and 5.16% better than May 2013. A good showing to be sure which combined with the April results (Toll Index – April 2014 – Q2 starts with a bang!) and conditional on a reasonably good month of June (which is what we should expect according to the recent Flash PMI) ought to make for a solid growth rate in 2Q2014 (any good news will fail to satisfy hyperventilating enough expectations of course and there are some of those around as always…).

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