Toll Index in August – business as usual

The Toll Index in August documents yet another quiet month of business as usual. Despite warnings from several national and international sources of an oncoming recession, a dramatic economic slow down is still nowhere to be seen. Surprisingly the only component of the Toll Index with a negative development is the inbound traffic index which dropped on a month-on-month basis by 2%. All other components had a positive development both on a month on month and on year on year basis. A caveat here is that as of August 1 2012 the network of Toll Roads was extended by 1100km (an increase of about 10%) which quite likely biases time comparisons of kilometers and trips but not of inbound and outbound traffic. According to data published by the BAG for the month of August there is a 2.63% increase in the number of kilometers driven if you count them with and without the kilometers driven on the newly added segments. It is however unlikely that the kilometers driven in August on the non-augmented Toll Road network equals the kilometers which would have been driven on that same network without the addition of the new segments: those who took smaller roads to avoid paying Toll are now more likely to choose highways if those smaller roads have been added to the Toll network. Unexpectedly the effect seems to be larger on the trips than on the kilometers. Nonetheless the outbound traffic is certainly no reason for pessimism yet.

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